Geophysical Service of the Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan has reported on an earthquake with 3.5 magnitude on April 27 at 15:32 local time near the Rogun Hydroelectric Station. The epicenter was located 17 km from the town of Rogun.

According to seismologists, in the area of Rogun with its huge dam of 336 meters high, as well as in other areas of Tajikistan, the earthquakes are often phenomena. Thus, according to U.S. Geological Survey, last week there were seven earthquakes registered in Central Asia, three of which epicentered in Tajikistan.

In the past, the territory of Tajikistan has repeatedly been struck by powerful destructive earthquakes. Earthquakes of a magnitude of at least 9 points have taken place in Tajikistan in Karatag (1907), and in Pamirs (1911), forming Lake Sarez, and another one was in Hait in 1949. These earthquakes have claimed lives of more than 100 thousand people.

In an interview with ITAR-TASS news agency, published March 15, 2011, Academician Sabit Negmatullaev, honorary director of the Institute of Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, based on analysis of earthquakes in Tajikistan, noted that over the next 10 years we should expect strong earthquake in the Pamir-Hindu Kush mountain site.

The current seismic activity in Tajikistan is probably a confirmation of dire predictions of the Tajik expert.

Today, reputable scientists from many countries urged the Tajik authorities to heed the voice of reason, to draw lessons from what happened in the past year the disaster in Japan and to suspend the construction of Rogun, located in one of the most seismically active regions on the planet.

Experts believe a major earthquake in the area of the 336m dam will lead to a sharp increase in tension caused by the movements of the base and the tremendous pressure of the water column (300 meters). It is clear that the dam will not be able to withstand such pressure, and eventually can trigger a real tsunami. Wave height, which in this case, could rush down the Vakhsh River, will be not less than 100 meters above the ground and the destructive capabilities far surpass the recent tsunami in Japan.

Breakthrough of the Rogun Dam would lead to an unprecedented catastrophe for the whole of Central Asia, but especially for Tajikistan itself. Experts predict that in such a scenario, a huge mass of water rushes down at a speed of 130 meters per second or 468 kilometers per hour towards the Nurek Hydroelectric Power Station. Nurek Dam will be completely destroyed, and a water wave of 280 meters high and a speed of 86 meters per second will engulf the town of Nurek. In the same way the wave will destroy all the other water facilities of Vakhsh Cascade and flood the towns of Sarban, Kurgantyube and almost all Rumy. These cities will be the first to suffer the water billow, which will continue its destructive movement to engulf dozens of other towns and villages in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

It is hoped that these appeals from reputable scientists will be heard by Tajik leadership for whom this giant hydroelectric dam has long become an idée fixe. (Source: “Uzbekistan Today” newspaper)