NEWS AND EVENTS
March 29, 2012
Construction to Be Given Up
A Russian expert Leonid Papyrin, who thoroughly studied materials of engineering and geological surveys to justify the construction of Rogun in 2005-2007, concluded that the construction would have to given up.
Denoting the seriousness of the problem, the expert said: \"The primary problem in the Rogun is the study of seismic state and salt deposits. And the old and the new demands of a dam adjacent to the slopes of the need to be studied in detail and calculations to be made of slope stability under seismic effects of varying intensity. Therefore, studies are urgently needed. But if one shall believe in the only represented section, the amount of generation of secondary landslides on this slope can reach a few hundred thousand to a few million cubic meters. The generation of secondary landslides will lead to damming the Vakhsh and creation of dam height of 40-80 meters. These same conclusions were made by specialists of an engineering company Lahmeyer International. That is, the gathering of secondary landslides would create a risk of flooding of hydroelectric power plants.
You can list a dozen more recent geological engineering problems (salt protection, stability of banks, block landslides in the basin of Surkhob, part of the reservoir area, etc.) that must be investigated before drawing up the detailed design.
Recently, it was reported that the World Bank does not recommend launching creating the Rogun in Tajikistan, as additional studies are needed, which, according to World Bank experts, will be held in a small volume of a client who does not have its surveying services and expertise in engineering geophysics. Thus, a principled approach in general does not change and all of the above geological problems remain unexplored.
The cost of additional studies, elimination of local accidents, the probability of which is very high significantly increase the cost of construction of the Rogun. The total cost of building a hydroelectric power station will be more expensive - US$7b. Miscalculations of designers and low-skilled studies in geological engineering can increase this figure. It is possible that after the modern study of the Rogun one would have to give up”.(Source: Uzbekistan Today Newspaper)